 PCUSA's reasons for staggering loss of members aren't justified by numbers By John H. Adams The Layman Online Monday, December 1, 2003 The plunging membership of the Presbyterian Church (USA) is like the weather – everybody talks about it, but nobody changes it.
In 1995, the Presbyterian Panel, the polling group for the denomination, reported that groupings of ministers, elders, specialized clergy and members – ranging from 76 percent to 84 percent – rated "membership growth and decline" as needing the most attention. But there has been no concerted or effective effort to deal with membership loss, which, in the year that ended Dec. 31, 2002, was the highest (41,812) in 20 years. Instead, there has been a sometimes snobbish reaction against those denominations that have grown. That sort of reaction apparently drew the attention of Keith Wulff of the PCUSA's Office of Research Services. Writing about the denomination's 1999 membership data, Wulff said, "It's easy to make fun of people who put too much emphasis on church growth, and it's easy to say that if you're doing the will of God you won't have many friends. But, why do we need to go to extremes? I think the Presbyterian Church has an important message to proclaim, and we should be concerned about the fact that we are reaching fewer people every year." But there are other voices in the denomination who seem to believe that membership losses are inevitable – particularly within the mainline family. For one, Cynthia M. Campbell, president of McCormick Theological Seminary, was quoted by Presbyterian News Service as saying, "The so-called 'mainstream Protestant' denominations are no longer the defining standard of American Christianity. Religious diversity is a fact of life for most Americans living in most towns and cities." With few exceptions, denominational leaders are loathe to blame the 37-year decline on the theological liberalization of the PCUSA. They prefer other rationalizations for an every-year decline that accumulated to a lost 1.8 million members by the end of 2002, including:
In 1970, 153.3 million Americans were members of denominational congregations. That number rose to 195.5 million in 2000 – a gain of 27.5 percent. The growth doesn't keep pace with overall population increases in the United States – 208 million in 1970 to 281 million in 2000, or 35 percent – but it is real growth. The World Christian Database yields some interesting facts. For instance, of the 25 largest denominations and religious groups in America, only seven are losing members. Five of the seven are sisters in the mainline family. Table No. 1 lists the 25. Instead of using actual membership, it counts "affiliated communicants," which includes nonconfirmed children of members. The percent of membership gains or losses (Growth column) are per-year averages.
Besides their decline, the five mainline sisters share a lot of baggage on their downward trip, including:
During that 30-year period, the PCUSA has lost 1.14 million members and their nonconfirmed children (23.9 percent), according to World Christian Database. And the other 19 Presbyterian/Reformed denominations have gained more than 725,000 members, an accumulated growth of 61.3 percent. Two of the 19 denominations – the Presbyterian Church in America (1970) and the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (1981) – were once in the mainline fold. Stressing the Westminster Confession and its expression of Christian orthodoxy, both are growing and absorbing some of the fallout from the PCUSA. Officially, the PCUSA doesn't lay the blame for the membership loss on the decline of orthodoxy, although many evangelicals do. And, on a number of occasions, Research Services approaches that view as well. There's a tendency among some denominational leaders to shun the blame for the PCUSA slide, as exemplified by Stated Clerk Clifton Kirkpatrick when he addressed the 214th General Assembly during its meeting in 2002. In one appearance, Kirkpatrick gave a glowing tribute to Jack B. Rogers, the outgoing moderator. Later, at the 215th General Assembly in May, Kirkpatrick lamented the loss of 41,812 members during the year ended Dec. 31, 2002, calling it a "huge indictment of those called to be Christ's evangelists." That loss – the highest percentage (1.68%) since the PCUSA was formed in 1983 through the reunion of the Northern and Southern mainline denominations – came on Rogers' watch. Rogers was a firestarter, advocating the ordination of practicing homosexuals and same-gender marriage, condemning the Confessing Church Movement and labeling conservatives "militant fundamentalists," a la Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. He received perhaps more critical mail than any other moderator in recent history. The man who was lavishly praised by the stated clerk was also a loss leader for the PCUSA. There's also other evidence of cause-and-effect. The highest numerical loss (43,930) of members and the second-highest percentage loss (1.60%) since reunion occurred in 1994. That was the year after the international ReImagining God event in which the PCUSA was one of the major sponsors through its contribution of $66,000 – money that was diverted from the denomination's Bicentennial Fund. A sizeable number of the staff and lay leadership in the PCUSA participated in the conference, in which participants were called on to "re-imagine" God as a goddess named Sophia, to reject the death of Christ on the cross as the atonement for sin, and to participate in a communion-like ritual of milk and honey instead of using bread and wine to symbolize the body and blood of Christ. The event spawned a huge backlash, cost the denomination an estimated $8 million in contributions and dramatically changed what Presbyterians think about their leaders. In 1993, about 70 percent of all Presbyterian contributions to the denomination were undesignated – meaning they could be spent however leaders decided. Today, 72.8 percent of all contributions to the denomination are designated to specific ministries, beyond the control of staff and elected leaders. The PCUSA's own demographers are worried about where the denomination is headed. They don't delve into the theological issues, but they offer a clear view of the denomination's death unless the situation is changed. "Recently, I calculated a simple straight-line projection of membership trends," said Jack Marcum, the head of the Office of Research Services. "At the rate of membership decline over the last dozen years, we would cease to have any members by the year 2061. That's certainly within the lifetime of many people alive today; in fact, this year's confirmation class would only be in their mid-70s by then. Another marker: the membership of the PCUSA is now less than that of the former UPCUSA in 1965. In other words, we have lost the net equivalent of the entire PCUS membership in just 30 years!" Marcum offered that analysis in 1999. Since then, membership losses have accelerated. The Layman made similar straight-line projections, but carried them back to 1967 – the year the losses began – and included the high-loss years of 2000, 2001 and 2002. Marcum was wrong. There would be no one left after 2054. |
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