While mainline Protestants lose members, others are gaining them By John H. Adams The Layman Online Monday, November 14, 2005 General Assembly Stated Clerk Clifton Kirkpatrick has repeatedly argued that the annual membership loss in the Presbyterian Church (USA) – averaging nearly 50,000 dropouts a year since 1965 – is because Presbyterians are abandoning religion altogether and not going to other churches. But a new analysis of church membership in a larger context indicates that many dropouts may, indeed, be going to other churches, although they may be far removed from traditional Reformed congregations. The Louisville flight Even in its own backyard, in the denomination's headquarters city of Louisville, Ky., the PCUSA has experienced the flight of hundreds of Presbyterians to an independent mega-church, the 25,000-member Southeastern Christian Church. It may also be significant that, despite the hundreds of Presbyterian ministers employed at the headquarters, the Presbytery of Mid-Kentucky, which wraps around Louisville, is one of the fastest declining presbyteries in the PCUSA. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of dropouts have segued to two evangelical Presbyterian denominations – the Presbyterian Church in America (370,000 members) and the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (70,000 members) – that arose from the ashes of theological flare-ups in the 1970s and 1980s. (article continues below chart) Comparing mainline denominations with three major U.S. church bodies Church body 1965 2003 Pct. change Gains/losses American Baptist Churches 1,538,988 1,433,075 -6.9% -105,913 Christian Church (Disciples) 1,801,821 770,793 -57.2% -1,031,028 ECUSA 3,616,000 2,320,221 -35.8% -1,295,779 ELCA 5,684,298 4,984,925 -12.3% -699,373 PCUSA 4,254,460 2,405,311 -43.5% -1,849,149 UCC 2,070,134 1,296,652 -37.4% -773,482 UMC 11,067,297 8,251,175 -25.4% -2,816,122 Assemblies of God 572,123 2,729,562 377.1% 2,157,439 Southern Baptist Convention 10,770,573 16,439,603 52.6% 5,669,030 Roman Catholic (US) 46,246,176 67,259,768 45.4% 21,013,592 Totals 87,621,870 107,891,085 23.1% 20,269,215 But, for purpose of this comparison, The Layman Online is limiting the review of the PCUSA and six other mainline denominations that have embraced to some degree what is called "progressive" theology that challenges traditional views of Biblical Christianity. And it has compared their membership changes since 1965 with those of the Roman Catholic Church, the Southern Baptist Church and the Assemblies of God in the United States. The other six mainline denominations are the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church, the American Baptist Churches, the Episcopal Church (USA), the United Church of Christ and the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ). The Layman Online's review was aided by the Institute on Religion and Democracy, an evangelical think-tank in Washington, D.C., which recently posted charts showing membership changes and a number of articles that highlight some underlying trends that shaped those changes. The big picture The big picture is this: As a group, the mainline churches are declining sharply, while membership in the Roman Catholic Church, Southern Baptist Convention and the Assemblies of God (as well as other Pentecostal groups) is rapidly increasing. From 1965 to 2003, the last year figures were available for all of the ecclesiastical bodies, the seven mainline denominations had a total of 30 million members. By 2003, their membership had fallen to 21.5 million, a decrease of 8.5 million, or 28.5 percent. The loss for the PCUSA during that period was 44.5 percent, the second highest among the seven. (In 2004, the PCUSA lost 43,195 members, reducing the total to 2.36 million.) Meanwhile, combined membership in the Roman Catholic, Southern Baptist and Assemblies of God was 57.6 million in 1965 and 86.4 million in 2003 – a gain of 28.8 million or 45.4 percent. Even during the period of one of its greatest scandals – the prosecution of priests who were accused of abusing children in their parishes – the Roman Catholic Church grew by 4 million members in the United States from 2000 to 2003. Mainline loses huge market share When aggregating the seven mainline denominations and the Roman Catholics, Southern Baptist and Assemblies of God, the figures point to an expanding church membership base – not a declining one reflecting dropouts to secularism. In 1965, the 10 church bodies had 86.7 million members. Their total membership in 2003 was 107.9 million in 2003. In 1965, Roman Catholics, Southern Baptists and the Assemblies of God accounted for 65.7 percent of the total. In 2003, they accounted for 80.1 percent. In the words of the advertising industry, the PCUSA and its mainline allies lost a huge share of the market. What if the seven mainline denominations, instead of losing 8.5 million members between 1965 and 2003, had each kept pace with the Roman Catholics, Southern Baptists and Assemblies of God? The seven mainline denominations would have reached 43.5 million members by 2003. The PCUSA's share would have been 6.2 million. The major issue: Why is the difference so great between the PCUSA and its mainline counterparts and the Roman Catholics, Southern Baptists and Assemblies of God? If the mainline losses are due to secularism, why are the Roman Catholics, Southern Baptists and Assemblies of God growing despite secularism? 'The Real Reason for Decline' The Institute of Religion and Democracy points to some possible explanations, including an article published in First Things in March 1993. The analysis, titled "Mainline Churches: The Real Reason for Decline," was written by Benton Johnson, Dean R. Hoge and Donald A. Luidens. "The least credible theory attributes their decline to the secularizing effects of industrialization, urbanization, and the spread of mass education," they say. The Johnson, Hoge and Luidens study is of particular interest to Presbyterians because it was based on 500 Gallup-style telephone interviews and 40 face-to-face follow-up interviews with Presbyterians who had been confirmed during the 1960s. They were tracking the baby boomers. So what kept the confirmands in church - or brought them back if they dropped out? "In our study, the single best predictor of church participation turned out to be belief - orthodox Christian belief, and especially the teaching that a person can be saved only through Jesus Christ," the authors said. Other factors They cited some other factors that attributed to membership losses in the PCUSA: "Nationwide data gathered in the mid-1960s showed that mainline Protestants not only held less orthodox views than did evangelicals, they also attended church less frequently and had fewer close friends in their own congregations." "A survey of Presbyterian General Assembly pronouncements on social issues, which one of us recently conducted, reveals an erosion throughout the twentieth century of official commitment to traditional Presbyterian standards of conduct." "Meanwhile, in the mainline churches themselves, the weakening process continues. Not only are a majority of our active baby boom Presbyterians lay liberals of one kind or other, on the average their level of participation is much lower than that of their parents when they themselves were in their teens." " … of all the various categories of churched and unchurched people that our study identified, only the fundamentalists reported that they attend church more frequently than their parents did." "Among lay liberals, degree of church involvement has mainly to do with such mundane matters as their sex, their marital status, the presence of children, and where they live." "The underlying problem of the mainline churches cannot be solved by new programs of church development alone. That problem is the weakening of the spiritual conviction required to generate the enthusiasm and energy needed to sustain a vigorous communal life." "Many of them have reduced the Christian faith to belief in God and respect for Jesus and the Golden Rule, and among this group a growing proportion have little need for the church." One of the major points of the study by Johnson, Hoge and Luidens is that the mainline church has increasingly embraced what they describe as "lay liberals" – people who were not nurtured in orthodox faith or rejected it. The lay liberals, they argue, also began setting the agenda in the mainline denominations, with a focus on such issues as individualism, sexuality, peacemaking and religious pluralism. Johnson, Hoge and Luidens do not express confidence that the mainline denominations will turn around. But, they say, "If the mainline churches want to regain their vitality, their first step must be to address theological issues head-on. They must listen to the voices of lay liberals and provide compelling answers to the question, 'What's so special about Christianity?'"

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